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DataGaffer is an independent club football (soccer) analytics website I built for bettors who want to dig deeper into a matchup. It brings together match simulations, team ratings, playstyle indexes, matchup scores, and research tools in one place.
I designed every model and analytical tool around how I believe football should be analyzed. Before a matchup is simulated, the model considers team strength, league difficulty, expected goals (xG), expected goals on target (xGOT), venue performance, recent form, regression, playstyle, head-to-head context, and the betting market.
The final projection is run through 10,000 match simulations. Those simulations produce the projected score, scoreline probabilities, match environment, and betting-market probabilities shown across the website.
The public ratings and index pages provide a free look at part of the DataGaffer system. A subscription unlocks the daily matchup-specific simulations, projections, outlooks, betting tools, and research pages.
DataGaffer separates team quality from playstyle, then accounts for the context of the specific matchup:
This shows the likely outcome and the type of match the teams may create, including goals, pressure, one-sided control, or a lower-scoring environment.
Ratings measure team strength beyond the league table by combining results, efficiency, and underlying performance.
Ratings account for league difficulty where appropriate, allowing teams from different competitions to be compared without treating every league as equally strong.
Indexes separate the different ways a team can influence a match. Every index is displayed on a 0-100 scale.
Pace measures the environment surrounding a team's matches. NEC focuses on that team's attacking identity, while TCIX measures control.
Pace Score is DataGaffer's matchup-level scoring-environment indicator. It combines the teams' venue-specific Pace, AGIX, NEC, and offensive and defensive efficiency profiles into one 0-100 score. A higher score means the matchup has stronger conditions for goals, shots, and shots on target.
DataGaffer also calculates Venue, Efficiency, Probability, Value, and Regression scores so users can compare team strength, match environment, bookmaker prices, and current performance from multiple angles.
DataGaffer provides another way to research a match before making a decision. Historical results are tracked for transparency, but no projection or betting edge guarantees an outcome or profit.
Coverage note: DataGaffer focuses on club football only. International matches and international breaks are not part of the simulation schedule. Core coverage includes the leagues below, with selected clubs from additional domestic leagues included during supported European competitions.