Ratings Guide

What you’re looking at: DataGaffer ratings are built to compare team strength, style, pace, pressure, efficiency, and stability in one clean view. They help explain how a team plays, where it is strong or vulnerable, and how its profile compares across leagues and matchups.

Ratings Overview Indexes Efficiency Team Ratings How to Use FAQ

Ratings Overview

DataGaffer ratings turn team performance data into readable strength and style scores. The goal is to show what a team is good at, what kind of match environment it creates, and how reliable that profile has been.

Strength-based: DGRtg, ORtg, DRtg, Home, and Away summarize overall and venue-specific quality.
Style-aware: indexes show goal environment, control, attacking identity, first-half activity, and pressing.
League-aware: strength ratings and most style scores use league context for fairer cross-league comparisons.
Raw option: raw ratings show statistical performance before league-strength and contextual adjustments.

Tip: use ratings and indexes to understand the team profile first, then use matchup pages and betting tools to decide if the price makes sense.

Pace Index

Measures the overall goal environment a team tends to create, using attacking quality and volume both for and against.

Higher Pace means stronger combined xGOT, xG, shots on target, inside-box shots, and big chances. Balance is also rewarded when both sides regularly contribute. It is not a possession rating or a simple measure of playing speed.

Useful for: goals, overs, BTTS, and shots-on-target markets.
Interpretation: higher Pace indicates a stronger overall scoring environment.

NEC — Team Attacking Identity

Measures a team's attacking and scoring identity rather than overall dominance or match openness.

NEC focuses on goals scored, shots on target, Team Over 1.5 frequency, and the team's tendency to appear in matches that clear Over 3.5.

Useful for: team totals, overs, scoring props.
Interpretation: higher NEC means a team more consistently pushes toward multi-goal attacking output.

AGIX — First Half Aggression

Measures the first-half environment a team's matches create, especially early attacking and scoring activity.

AGIX combines first-half goals, shots, shots on target, corners, First-Half Over 1.5 frequency, and goals scored or conceded from minutes 0-15.

Useful for: first-half goals, first-half overs, and early-match markets.
Interpretation: higher AGIX means more first-half activity; it does not necessarily mean the team is stronger.

TCIX — Total Control Index

Measures match control through pass share, possession, shot share, inside-box shot share, and duel success relative to the league.

Higher TCIX usually means the team dictates territory and attacking volume. It does not automatically mean the match will be fast or high scoring.

Useful for: match control, favorite dominance, live angle support.
Interpretation: bigger TCIX gap → more control advantage.

Offensive Efficiency

Measures how efficiently a team's shots become shots on target and how efficiently those shots on target become goals.

Higher value = better shot accuracy and finishing efficiency.
Lower value = attacks are converted into shots on target and goals less efficiently.

Off Eff measures conversion, not attacking volume or overall offensive strength. ORtg measures scoring output adjusted for league difficulty.

Defensive Efficiency

Measures how effectively a team prevents the shots it allows from becoming shots on target and goals.

Higher value in the Ratings table = stronger shot prevention and goal prevention.
Lower value = opponents convert their shots more efficiently.

DRtg measures league-adjusted goals allowed. Def Eff measures the conversion quality of the shots allowed. Matchup pages reverse this into a vulnerability index, where a higher defensive value means a more exploitable defense.

PPDA — Pressing Intensity

A pressing metric indicating how aggressively a team closes down opponents. Lower PPDA typically = more pressing.

Raw PPDA: lower is a stronger press because fewer opponent passes are allowed per defensive action.
PPDA Index: higher is a stronger press because the 0-100 index reverses the raw value.

Consistency Rating

Measures how consistently a team’s recent matches produce the same type of scoreline and betting environment. It combines scoreline-shape consistency with repeatability across Over 2.5, Over 3.5, and BTTS, with Over 2.5 and BTTS carrying the most weight.

Useful for: identifying repeatable high-scoring or low-scoring betting environments.
Interpretation: higher consistency means the team repeatedly lands similar scoreline shapes and stays on the same side of key goal lines and BTTS; mirrored results such as 3-2 and 2-3 are treated as the same shape.

Luck Factor

A current-season signal for teams outperforming or underperforming what their expected-goals profile suggests.

Higher Luck = scoring above xG and/or conceding below xGA.
Lower Luck = scoring below xG and/or conceding above xGA.

Luck uses 2026 team statistics only and is best used as a second opinion, not the main driver.

Team Strength Ratings

DataGaffer team ratings separate overall strength, attack, defense, and venue-specific performance.

DGRtg: overall team strength using league quality, league-relative scoring and defending, results, opponent strength, and European performance where available.
ORtg: goals scored adjusted for league difficulty. Higher is better.
DRtg: goals conceded adjusted for league difficulty. Lower is better.
Home / Away: venue-specific strength using scoring margin, results, league context, and home or away points per match.
Raw Ratings: DGRtg, ORtg, DRtg, Home, and Away before league-strength and contextual adjustments.

Indexes use a 0-100 percentile-style scale. The Rating view shows the underlying model value, while the Raw Ratings view removes league-strength and contextual influence.

What you see	What it usually implies	Common betting uses
Large rating gap	Clear strength advantage	Moneyline, Asian handicap, team totals
Small rating gap	More balanced matchup	BTTS, totals, props, “style angles”
High pace + high NEC	Open goal environment plus strong attacking identity	Overs, BTTS, team totals, SOT
Low pace + strong defense	Lower-quality scoring environment	Unders and lower team totals

Ratings are not a direct win prediction; they are a strength snapshot. The simulation still matters because it models the matchup and its range of outcomes.

How to Use the Tables

The tables are designed to answer two questions quickly: (1) who is stronger? and (2) what type of match is this?

Start with Ratings: confirm the baseline strength edge.
Check Indexes: identify control, tempo, and attacking identity.
Use Efficiency: compare shot conversion and shot prevention.
Then match it to a market: ML/handicap vs totals/BTTS vs corners.

Example workflow: NEC shows attacking identity, while TCIX shows who is likely to control the match. High Pace combined with high NEC supports a stronger goals and BTTS environment; TCIX helps identify which team may dictate it.

FAQ: Why do numbers move?

Ratings update when new results and team statistics arrive. Early in a season, the blend between prior and current data, league context, and new-manager influence can also change a team's position.

Movement reflects new evidence in the rating model, not confirmed lineups.

FAQ: Are the ratings “exact”?

They’re best viewed as directionally accurate strength and style signals. Football has variance — the goal is to make better decisions over a large sample.

Use ratings + Indexes together for the cleanest read.

FAQ: What should I trust most?

When multiple signals agree, they provide a more complete matchup profile than any single rating alone.

Ratings and indexes can overlap, so agreement is useful context rather than a guarantee.

FAQ: Can I share this?

Yes — DataGaffer ratings are free to view and built to be shared. If you post screenshots, tag DataGaffer so others can find the guide.

@datagaffer on Twitter is the best place to share and ask questions!