Ratings Guide
What you’re looking at: DataGaffer projections are powered by a proprietary match simulation model that runs each game 10,000 times. The model blends team strength ratings, league quality, expected goals profiles, recent form signals, and style metrics to create realistic outcomes.
Model Overview Indices Efficiency Team Ratings How to Use FAQ

Model Overview

DataGaffer simulates each matchup thousands of times using pre-match inputs to estimate win probabilities, totals, and expected match flow. Outputs are designed to be interpretable and actionable for betting and analysis.

  • Simulation-first: results reflect distributions (not just a single score).
  • Context-aware: accounts for team strength, league quality, and matchup dynamics.
  • Pre-match by default: numbers can shift slightly when official lineups are confirmed.
Tip: treat ratings/indices as a way to understand why the simulation likes a side or total — not as a guarantee.

TCIX — Total Control Index

Measures a team’s ability to control matches through territorial dominance, chance generation, and limiting opponent looks.

Higher TCIX usually means the team dictates game flow and keeps opponents pinned back.
  • Useful for: match control, “favorite dominance”, live angle support.
  • Interpretation: bigger TCIX gap → more control advantage.

NEC — Team Attacking Identity

Captures how consistently a team creates attacking pressure and sustained chance volume.

Higher NEC often correlates with more dangerous attacking sequences and better “team total” profiles.
  • Useful for: team totals, overs, scoring props.
  • Interpretation: high NEC vs weak defense → strong scoring expectation.

AGIX — First Half Aggression

Measures early-game intensity and how quickly a team tries to impose itself in the first half.

High AGIX teams tend to start fast and generate early pressure.
  • Useful for: first-half overs, early corners, “start fast” profiles.
  • Interpretation: AGIX gap → first-half pressure edge.

Pace Index

Estimates the tempo and “event rate” of matches — how open and fast games get and how often attacking events occur.

Higher pace = more transitions, more shots/corners, more volatility. Pure game Openness.
  • Useful for: overs, BTTS, corners, shots markets.
  • Interpretation: high pace matchups → higher variance outcomes.

Offensive Efficiency

How effectively a team converts good attacking phases into real scoring output.

  • High value → good conversion / sharp finishing / high-quality chance creation.
  • Low value → creates chances but struggles to finish.
When Off Eff is high but underlying chance volume is average, the team may be overperforming (watch regression signals).

Defensive Efficiency

How well a team limits opponent shot quality and suppresses dangerous chances.

  • High value → strong suppression and structure.
  • Low value → allows dangerous looks (high xG conceded profiles).
Big mismatch: strong attack metrics vs weak defense metrics often drives the best totals/BTTS angles.

PPDA — Pressing Intensity

A pressing metric indicating how aggressively a team closes down opponents. Lower PPDA typically = more pressing.

  • Useful for: tempo forecasting, turnovers, match chaos.
  • Interpretation: low PPDA + high pace can create high-event matches.

Luck Factor

A signal for teams outperforming or underperforming what their chance profile suggests.

  • High luck → results may be inflated vs underlying play.
  • Low luck → results may be harsh vs underlying play.
Luck is best used as a “second opinion” — not the main driver.

Team Strength Ratings

DataGaffer team ratings are power ratings designed to compare overall quality by combining attacking output, defensive suppression, and contextual adjustments into a single strength score.

  • Higher rating → stronger team profile in that context (home/away effects can matter).
  • Bigger gap → larger projected advantage (especially when supported by style + efficiency edges).
  • League-aware → ratings can be compared across leagues with quality adjustments.
What you see What it usually implies Common betting uses
Large rating gap Clear strength advantage Moneyline, Asian handicap, team totals
Small rating gap More balanced matchup BTTS, totals, props, “style angles”
High pace + high NEC More events, more chances Overs, corners, BTTS
Low pace + strong defense Suppressed event rate Unders, lower corner volume
Ratings are not “who wins”; they’re a strength snapshot. The simulation still matters because it captures distribution + volatility.

How to Use the Tables

The tables are designed to answer two questions quickly: (1) who is stronger? and (2) what type of match is this?

  • Start with Ratings: confirm the baseline strength edge.
  • Check Indices: identify control, tempo, and attacking identity.
  • Use Efficiency: validate finishing/suppression and pressing profile.
  • Then match it to a market: ML/handicap vs totals/BTTS vs corners.
Example workflow: If a team has a NEC edge AND a TCIX edge, you’re seeing strength + control. If the matchup also shows high pace/NEC and low TCIX, totals and BTTS often become more attractive.

FAQ: Why do numbers move?

Projections can adjust slightly when official lineups are confirmed or when new match context is available. The default view is pre-match.

Always check for confirmed lineups when available.

FAQ: Are the ratings “exact”?

They’re best viewed as directionally accurate strength and style signals. Football has variance — the goal is to make better decisions over a large sample.

Use ratings + indices together for the cleanest read.

FAQ: What should I trust most?

When multiple signals agree (ratings edge + control edge + efficiency edge), that’s typically the highest-confidence read.

Single-metric edges can be noisy; stacked edges are stronger.

FAQ: Can I share this?

Yes — DataGaffer ratings are free to view and built to be shared. If you post screenshots, tag DataGaffer so others can find the guide.

@datagaffer on Twitter is the best place to share and ask questions!