Loading today's strongest matchup signals...
Daily Cheat Sheet
Projected Scores
Projected Corners
Projected Shots
Projected SOT
Win Outlook
First Half Outlook
Value Score
Probability Score
Pace Score
Efficiency Score
Venue Score
Regression Score
Top Probabilities
Correct Scoreline
Matchup Grades
Top Edges
Extra Markets
Top 5 Player Sims
H2H Betting
Player h2h Outlook
Manager h2h Outlook
xG Performance
DG Rankings
1: Daily Cheat Sheet
Full breakdown of today's strongest goal, player, team matchups and best value plays.
2: Projected Scores
Projected scores for each match, based on simulation results.
1
| Home Team | Team | Total | Team | Away Team |
|---|
3: Corner Outlook (Full Match + FH)
Full match and first half projected corners from simulations. Blue = first half projections.
1
| Home | Away | H | Total | A | FH H | FH T | FH A |
|---|
4: Shot Outlook (Full Match + FH)
Full match and first half projected shots from simulations. Blue = first half projections.
1
| Home | Away | H | Total | A | FH H | FH T | FH A |
|---|
5: SOT Outlook (Full Match + FH)
Full match and first half projected shots on target from simulations. Blue = first half.
1
| Home | Away | H | Total | A | FH H | FH T | FH A |
|---|
6: Win Outlook
Simulated win and draw percentages for each match after 10,000 simulations.
1
| Home | Team | Win | Draw | Win | Team | Away |
|---|
7. First Half Outlook
Projected first half win percentages and scores after simulations.
1
| Home | FH Win | Goals | Total | Goals | FH Win | Away |
|---|
Value Score measures the edge between DataGaffer simulations and bookmaker odds for goal markets.
It compares model probabilities to market implied probabilities and calculates the percentage difference.
Positive values suggest potential betting value, while negative values indicate markets that may be overpriced.
It compares model probabilities to market implied probabilities and calculates the percentage difference.
Positive values suggest potential betting value, while negative values indicate markets that may be overpriced.
8. Value Score
Combined goal value edge across BTTS, Over 2.5, and Team Totals.
1
| Goals Value | Home | Away | BTTS | O2.5 | Team Total |
|---|
Probability Score represents the model’s simulated likelihood of goal markets winning.
These percentages come directly from DataGaffer simulations and represent average outcome probability across thousands of runs.
Markets shown include BTTS, Over 2.5, and Team Total Over 1.5.
These percentages come directly from DataGaffer simulations and represent average outcome probability across thousands of runs.
Markets shown include BTTS, Over 2.5, and Team Total Over 1.5.
9. Probability Score
Combined probability % across BTTS, Over 2.5, and Team Totals.
1
| O2.5 | TT O1.5 | Home | Score | Away | TT O1.5 | BTTS |
|---|
11. Goal Distribution
Probability of each total goals outcome (0–6) based on DataGaffer simulations.
Darker blue highlights the most likely outcomes.
1
| Home Team | Opp | Total | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|
11. Team Projections
Team scoring probabilities and win chances centered around projected team goals. Green books odds = value.
1
| FH Win |
O0.5
O1.5
O2.5
Win
|
Win
O2.5
O1.5
O0.5
|
FH Win |
|---|
11. Goal Markets
Sim % vs bookmaker comparison for BTTS, Over 2.5, and Over 3.5. Green books odds = value.
1
| Home | BTTS sim % + book odds | O2.5 sim % + book odds | O3.5 sim % + book odds | Away |
|---|
13. Corner Markets
Simulated corner probabilities vs bookmaker lines. Green books odds = value.
1
| Home Corners | Sim % | Total Corners | Sim % | Sim % | Away Corners |
|---|
15. Ratings Outlook
DataGaffer ratings comparison using overall DataGaffer ratings, home/away, offensive, defensive and pace metrics.
1
| Home | ORtg | DRtg | Pace | DGRtg | DGRtg | Pace | DRtg | ORtg | Away |
|---|
Pace Score (0-100) reflects the overall goal environment: tempo, attacking aggression, and scoring conditions.
It blends each team’s venue-specific Pace, AGIX, and NEC indexes, with a light weight from efficiency ratings.
Higher scores indicate more open matches with pressure, transitions, and goal potential. These are useful for goal and SOT markets.
It blends each team’s venue-specific Pace, AGIX, and NEC indexes, with a light weight from efficiency ratings.
Higher scores indicate more open matches with pressure, transitions, and goal potential. These are useful for goal and SOT markets.
10. Pace Score
Measures game openness using tempo + goal environment. Score 0-100, 100 = attacking chaos and open match.
1
| AGIX | NEC | Pace | Team | Score | Team | Pace | NEC | AGIX |
|---|
Efficiency Score measures the attacking and defensive goal environment of a matchup using efficiency ratings.
H OFF = Home offensive efficiency
A OFF = Away offensive efficiency
H DEF = Home defensive efficiency
A DEF = Away defensive efficiency
Higher offensive numbers indicate stronger attacking environments. Lower defensive numbers indicate stronger defenses.
The score blends both teams’ offensive and defensive profiles to spot strong goal environments and weak defensive matchups.
H OFF = Home offensive efficiency
A OFF = Away offensive efficiency
H DEF = Home defensive efficiency
A DEF = Away defensive efficiency
Higher offensive numbers indicate stronger attacking environments. Lower defensive numbers indicate stronger defenses.
The score blends both teams’ offensive and defensive profiles to spot strong goal environments and weak defensive matchups.
11. Efficiency Score
Matchup score built from each team's attacking efficiency and defensive efficiency profile. Higher = better for Off and worse for Def
1
| H Off | H Def | Team | Score | Team | A Def | A Off |
|---|
Venue Score measures each team’s strength in its specific home or away setting.
It combines Raw Venue Rating (true home/away strength), Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency, and Control (territorial dominance).
The Gap shows the difference between both teams’ venue strength, highlighting which side has the stronger positional advantage in this matchup.
It combines Raw Venue Rating (true home/away strength), Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency, and Control (territorial dominance).
The Gap shows the difference between both teams’ venue strength, highlighting which side has the stronger positional advantage in this matchup.
12. Venue Score
Measures team strength at home vs away using raw venue rating, efficiency, and control.
Higher score = stronger overall performance in that venue.
1
| Home | Team | Gap | Team | Away |
|---|
Regression Score looks at each team’s last 6 matches and compares actual goals for/against to expected goals for/against.
Team Score combines a team's attacking luck with the opponent's defensive luck, showing whether that side of the matchup has been underperforming or overperforming against xG.
A negative score means the matchup is showing underperformance and may be due for goals. A positive score means recent results have been running hotter than the xG profile and may be more likely to cool off.
Team Score combines a team's attacking luck with the opponent's defensive luck, showing whether that side of the matchup has been underperforming or overperforming against xG.
A negative score means the matchup is showing underperformance and may be due for goals. A positive score means recent results have been running hotter than the xG profile and may be more likely to cool off.
13: Regression Score
Using last-6 xG performances to spot regression. Negative = due for goals. Positive = overperforming.
1
| Team Score | Def Eff | Off Eff | Home | Score | Away | Off Eff | Def Eff | Team Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading regression scores... | ||||||||||
14: Top Probabilities
Highest-probability match, team, player sim odds and combined probability scores for today.
Most Probable 3+ Goal Matches
| Match | Sim % | Sim | Book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loading 3+ goal matches... | |||
Most Probable BTTS Matches
| Match | Sim % | Sim | Book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loading BTTS matches... | |||
Most Prob Teams To Score
| Team | Sim |
|---|---|
| Loading team scoring spots... | |
Most Probable To Win
| Team | Sim |
|---|---|
| Loading win spots... | |
Most Probable Player SOA
| Player | Sim |
|---|---|
| Loading player SOA... | |
16. Correct Score Matrix
Correct-score outlook showing the strongest exact-score projections and the matches most likely to stretch into higher scorelines.
Loading score matrices...
Loading scoreline tables...
17. Matchup Grades
Grades for how each team historically plays against similar team profiles. Showing the most dominant matchups and best goal matchups.
| Match | Attack | Defense | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loading matchup grades... | |||
| Match | Goals | BTTS | Pace | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading goal matchups... | ||||
| Matchup | Trend | G | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loading trends... | |||
18. DG Top Edges
Best value play from each matchup using DG sim probability against Bet365 pricing. Gold bets are marked DG Elite Edge.
1
| Match | Bet | Sim | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading value plays... | ||||
19. Extra Markets
Simulated shots on target and Over 2.5 + BTTS probabilities vs bookmaker lines.
1
| Home | Market | Away | Proj | Sim % | Odds |
|---|
1
| Home | Away | Sim % | Sim | Book Odds |
|---|
20: Top 5 Player Sims
Best simulated players of the day across goals, assists, shots, and conversion stats.
Goals/90
Assists/90
Shots/90
SOT/90
Score or Assist %
Passes / 90
Tackles / 90
Cards / 90
21. H2H Betting Outlook
Historical head-to-head betting results based on previous meetings.
1
| Matchup | H2H | Home Win | Draw | Away Win | BTTS % | O2.5 % | O3.5 % | O9.5 Crn | O8.5 SOT |
|---|
20: Head-to-Head & Form Outlook
Average head-to-head goals and last 5-match form for each team.
1
| Matchup | Home | Away | Total | H Form | A Form |
|---|
22. Player H2H Outlook
Best historical player performances against today’s opponent
based on head-to-head data.
1
| Grade | Player | H2H | Opponent | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | SOT |
|---|
23. Manager H2H Outlook
Historical manager vs manager h2h performance data.
1
| Grade | Manager | H2H | Win% | Goals | Shots | Corners | BTTS / O2.5 |
|---|
24: xG For Performance
Comparing each team's actual goals scored per match vs expected goals (xG).
xG For
| Overperformers | Actual | xG | Diff | Underperformers | Actual | xG | Diff |
|---|
25: DG Rating Rankings
Top 30 teams ranked by overall DataGaffer rating.
DG Rating
| Move | Team | Score | Move | Team | Score |
|---|
26: BTTS Rankings
Top 30 teams ranked for Both Teams To Score % from simulations.
BTTS
| Move | Team | % | Move | Team | % |
|---|