About DataGaffer
DataGaffer is an independent club football (soccer) analytics platform I built for bettors. It includes match simulations, team ratings, playstyle indexes, and matchup data across leagues and competitions around the world.
I’m Michael Casper, the founder and developer of DataGaffer. I created the football methodology behind every rating, index, simulation model, and analytical tool on the website.
I built DataGaffer to measure how a match is likely to be played using pure analytics. The model uses underlying performance data including goals, shots, xG, pace, defensive strength, league difficulty, home advantage, and matchup dynamics.
Projections and simulations are updated regularly using recent matches, changes in team strength, and opponent-adjusted data. This keeps the ratings and outlooks focused on what teams are doing now.
League Coverage
DataGaffer is exclusively a club football website. I do not cover international football, and international matches or international breaks are not part of the simulation schedule.
Additional leagues may be added based on the coverage available from my data providers. DataGaffer’s simulations and ratings rely on advanced data that is not available in every league, so I only add a competition when the necessary data is available to analyze it properly.
I currently cover:
- Premier League
- La Liga
- La Liga 2
- Serie A
- Bundesliga
- Ligue 1
- Championship
- Eredivisie
- Primeira Liga
- Swiss Super League
- Jupiler Pro League
- Danish Superliga
- Süper Lig
- Scottish Premiership
- Brazil Série A
- Liga MX
- MLS
- Eliteserien
- Allsvenskan
- 2. Bundesliga
- Austrian Bundesliga
- Eerste Divisie
- A-League
- Champions League
- Europa League
- Selected Conference League matches
- Domestic cups
How DataGaffer Models Work
DataGaffer simulations are built on thousands of matchup-based calculations per fixture. Each game is evaluated using team-specific data such as:
- Goals scored and conceded (home/away adjusted)
- Shots, shots on target, and attacking volume
- Expected goals (xG) and chance quality
- Match pace and tempo indicators
- League strength coefficients
- Opponent-adjusted defensive pressure
- Historical betting market performance (Over 2.5, BTTS, Team Totals)
- Several other factors
These inputs feed into proprietary rating systems including Offensive Rating, Defensive Rating, Pace Rating, and overall team strength. From there, simulations generate probabilities for key markets such as match outcomes, goal totals, BTTS, team totals, player performance, and more.
The models are built to identify:
- Which games are likely to be open or slow
- Which teams create high-volume chances
- Which matchups produce chaotic, high-event environments
- Where betting markets may misprice game dynamics
DataGaffer is for people who want to understand why a game projects a certain way. It shows the numbers and matchup conditions behind each projection.
Privacy Policy
We respect your privacy. DataGaffer does not collect or store personal data beyond what is necessary for authentication, subscriptions, and improving user experience.
We use trusted third-party services including Stripe for secure payment processing, and Supabase for authentication and account management. DataGaffer does not store sensitive payment information on its own servers.
Subscription & Cancellation Policy
DataGaffer subscriptions are processed securely through Stripe. We currently offer a monthly subscription for $9.99 per month and a yearly subscription for $69.99 per year. Both plans are recurring subscriptions and automatically renew unless canceled before the next billing date.
Subscribers can cancel their plan at any time through the subscription management portal or by contacting datagaffer@gmail.com. After cancellation, access remains active until the end of the current paid billing period. DataGaffer does not store credit card information, and all payment updates, renewals, and cancellations are handled through Stripe.
We do not provide prorated refunds for partial billing periods unless required by law. If you believe there was a billing mistake or need help with your subscription, contact datagaffer@gmail.com.
Questions or data requests? Email datagaffer@gmail.com or Message @datagaffer on X (Twitter).
Responsible Use Disclaimer
DataGaffer projections, simulations, ratings, and betting insights are provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. They do not guarantee outcomes, profits, or betting success.
Betting involves risk. Users are responsible for following all local laws and age requirements in their location. Odds, statistics, and projections may change or contain delays/errors, so users should verify information before making any decision.
DataGaffer is not financial, gambling, or professional advice.